All of the technorati have published their take on what would be key technology trends for 2011 a month back. I did an analysis of all the key trends and found out most of them are same as the last year or minor derivatives of the same. Sometimes it feels like Time is circular than linear and progressive. Anyhow, here is my attempt to do it with a difference!
From a Macro trend perpsective; SOA, BPM, BI , Mobile, Cloud still remain the hot favorites with SOA increasingly becoming a norm or expected feature rather than a radically or magically revolutionary. For all practical purposed we could push SOA aside. I have always thought SOA is a good programming style/architectural maturity taking help of standardization and nothing else; So long, SOA pundits. We got it now and please work on something else. Lets analyse the key drivers which are relevant to the time that we are passing through now.
The first and foremost driver is the Cost. Inspite of all those money pumped into the world economy and increased quantitative easing , the doubts about recovery are still looming large and we are yet to experience the next big boom. The CFOs are still vigilant and are cautious to spend in a casino style like we are witnessed few years back.
Secondly , the technology has been commoditised to a phenomenal extent that a Mom&Pop shop can download a OpenSource ERP, BI, BPM , DB etc if they are tech savvy. Laissez-faire is the order of the world now.
Thirdly, due to the ubiquitous nature of the internet and the increased adoption of the smartphones, the expectation for information to be available everywhere is beyond belief. We are going through an era where we are drowned with information both relevant and non relevant.
Finally, we are getting back to have a social life [well, virtual one] through a plethora of social networking sites. We have started interacting with our near and dear more often than ever. The time that TV used to consume from us is getting slowly shifted to these sites. As we speak, there are atleast 200 million active users facebooking and twittering what they are doing now and what they would be doing in next 7 minutes. This is a very interesting driver as this represents a shift in the way we collaborate, express our emotions and share our needs/deeds. There is a whole new generation for whom this is a way of life. They are much more comfortable choosing that their friends 'Like'. Our social graph is getting increasingly cluttered.
In summary the key drivers of today are
1. Cost
2. Commoditised technology
3. Increased information availability
4. Busy Social graph
With the above in minds, what could drive the technology world ?
Cost:
1. Cloud computing would become norm. I heard a CIO mentioning Amazon Cloud is more secure than a local vendor hosting his infrastructure with a local vendor
2. Open Source would find its way through the Enterprise mainly wrapped under Cloud based Services. If you are provided a complete CRM that meets your demand through Cloud and if asked to pay 10 quids, you wouldnt mind. Wouldnt you?
Commoditised technology:
3. The availability of best of the breed tools would increase the adoption of Analytics, BPM, ESB etc especially with the Tier 2 companies across domains
4. IT vendors would focus on solving business problems rather than touting their Technology expertise, at last.
RIP Technology driven world! Now Go to solve the problem which your customer has been grappling with than killing him [her also] by that 120 slider
Increased information availability
5. The focus would shift from access of information to the creation of knowledge from information. Semantic web could get more prevalent.
6. Devices like smartphones and tablets that helps in Knowledge creation would become the order of the day
Busy Social Graph
7. Buying patterns would be influenced by your social graph. You would be tempted to buy the Apple TV which your friend bragged in FB and got 'Like'd by 30 of your friends
8. Newer social sites for gaming, buying would emerge and stay
9. Focus on User Experience would increase as a differentiator among the competing sellers
10. World is a better place with 9 trends!
We have been going through a linear technology world for a very long time and now the shift is slowly towards a non-linear world where an application that respects users expectation, provides knowledge at a bare minimum cost would be the winner.
Please be advised that there would not be any trends for 2012 by any one as the Mayan's have predicted an end of the World , as we know, next year.
So long and thanks for all the fish. 42. [if you dont understand check out HHGG by Douglas Adams]
So long and thanks for all the fish. 42. [if you dont understand check out HHGG by Douglas Adams]
